Quantum Y2K Problem Is Huge!

5 min read
(January 22, 2025)
Quantum Y2K Problem Is Huge!
8:01

There is a coming Y2K-like problem that will require you to upgrade or replace every bit of software or hardware in your environment and the only question around this problem is when it will occur. Will you be prepared? 

In conjunction with this article, I will be speaking at the upcoming Cyber Security Tribe online fireside chat on Feb 04: How to Prepare for a Post Quantum World and Why, which will highlight the critical need for organizations to migrate their current cryptographic systems to quantum-resistant algorithms. 


In 1994, Dr. Peter Shor figured out that if we actually had sufficiently-capable quantum computers, they could break most of today’s modern asymmetric encryption (e.g., RSA, Diffie-Helman, El-Gamal, Elliptic Curve Cryptography, etc.) and weaken the rest. That was not a big worry then because we did not even have a single quantum computer. But in 1999, IBM created the first, very rudimentary quantum computer and tested out Shor’s Algorithm, as it is now known. And, yes, it was capable of “factoring” large prime number equations, used by most of today’s asymmetric crypto, in minutes versus the billions of years needed for traditional binary computers. Since then, the race to be prepared has been on. 

Every year since, dozens of companies have made steady progress, making constant, exponential progress toward a “sufficiently-capable” quantum computer. When that day comes, whoever has the power will be able to read the secrets protected by much of today’s cryptography. For that reason, the National Institute of Technology and Standards (NIST) held a multi-year contest (still ongoing) to select new cryptographic standards that will be resistant to quantum computers (popularly known as post-quantum cryptography or PQC). 

Last year, NIST selected the four PQC post-quantum standards: 

  • CRYSTALS-Kyber (encryption)
  • CRYSTALS-Dilithium (digital signature/signing)
  • FALCON (digital signature/signing) 
  • SPHINCS+ (digital signature/signing) 

NIST is in the middle of another contest round and is hoping to add to the current PQC finalists.  

Pretty soon, the world will be moving from today’s asymmetric ciphers to PQC. This will involve inventorying every bit of software and hardware you have that protects sensitive critical data, and using that analysis to determine which software and hardware needs to be upgraded and which needs to be replaced. Post-quantum projects will be vaguely familiar to IT people who had to be prepared at the last turn of the century for the Year 2000 (Y2K) projects, although this time we do not know when the deadline will be.  

The U.S. government has placed 2035 as the year when most organizations should be post-quantum ready, meaning having replaced their quantum-susceptible cryptography with quantum-resistant cryptography.  

Note: I strongly believe that the quantum cryptographic “crack” will happen before 2035:  

You can find a few different “official post-quantum prep” dates, but the U.S. National Security Memorandum on Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems is the authoritative resource, for now, for U.S. organizations and much of the world.  

Note: The National Institute of Standards & Technology provides some more detail in their NIST Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards document, discussing what cryptography will be deprecated in 2030 versus 2035.  

Begin Preparing Now 

No matter when you think the quantum crypto crack might happen, the U.S. government has been instructing organizations to begin preparing for the post-quantum transition for nearly a decade. After all these years, they believe that most organizations have already been preparing with official project teams, budgets, resources, and completed cryptographic inventories. But in my experience, only a small percentage of organizations have done anything to start preparing. Most do not have an official post-quantum project, budgets, or allocated resources.  

Your organization needs to have a post-quantum project already started, and if you do not, get one stood up today, and start preparing for the day when you need to upgrade most of your cryptography. I wrote a book on the subject, Cryptography Apocalypse: Preparing for the Day When Quantum Computing Breaks Today's Crypto.

 I was also the lead author of a whitepaper called Practical Preparations in a Post-Quantum World, which is a great free guide to get you started. Either source is a great guide to how to plan and begin your organization’s post-quantum project. 

If you are a high-value target with valuable long-term data and intellectual property, it is possible that your adversaries may already be eavesdropping on your current encrypted wireless data streams and saving them for the day when they have sufficient quantum capabilities. The U.S. government has confirmed that foreign entities are already doing this, and no doubt, we are doing it to our adversaries.

How to Prepare?

Here is how to prepare if you have not already started: 

  1. Educate senior management and IT (you can start with this article).
  2. Educate your organization and your vendors. 
  3. Start an official post-quantum project with senior management sponsorship, budgets, resources, and a project plan. 
  4. Take a data protection inventory. Learn where your confidential data is and how it is protected…cryptographically. You need to know algorithms, key sizes, and the maximum key sizes you can enable if needed. You need to know what secrets really need to be protected and for how long. You need to determine what critical data is at risk from a quantum attack. 
  5. Use and move toward quantum-resistant crypto, where and when possible.
  6. Pressure your vendors over quantum crack preparation. 
  7. At least demand “crypto-agility” from your vendors where the cryptography can be updated when needed without a complete replacement. 
  8. Prevent eavesdropping today on very high-value data. 

Post-Quantum Protections 

There are a variety of ways to protect your sensitive data from a quantum attack, including these: 

  • Physical isolation (so data cannot be stolen by eavesdropping) 
  • Increase your symmetric cryptography (i.e., AES) key sizes to 256-bits or longer if they are shorter 
  • Upgrade to post-quantum cryptography (as it becomes available) 
  • Consider Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for transmitting symmetric encryption keys across networks 
  • Consider using hybrid protection mixes (traditional, PQC, quantum)
  • Use Quantum Encryption (when it becomes available) 
  • Use Quantum Random Number Generators (as they become available) 

Over 25 years ago, the world came together to upgrade and prepare our computers for a new century. The term “Y2K” has erroneously come to mean a lot of preparation and worry for an event that did not happen. We all spent a year or more preparing, and in the end, the biggest Y2K worries (e.g., planes falling from the skies, mortgage records gone, crazy calculations, etc.) did not happen widescale across the globe. But that is because we all came together, did our inventories of software and hardware, and figured out what had to be upgraded and what had to be replaced. Y2K was a huge global success, not a waste of time.  

We again face a computer problem which will require us to inventory and analyze all software and hardware, only this time, we do not know what the deadline is. The U.S. government says 2035. Many experts, including the author of this article, disagree and think the quantum crypto crack will happen years before.  

No matter the date, the sooner you start on your post-quantum project, the cheaper and less frustrating the process should be. You do not want to be that organization that gets caught at the last minute hoping they can get scarce project resources and ever-growing more expensive consultants and vendors in to help. Start now, save money, and be able to be more thoughtful.